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2025 federal election — archive summary

Date: 3 May 2025
Result: Labor re-elected — 94 seats (17 net gain) · Coalition 43 (−15) · Crossbench 13
National 2PP: ~55.3% Labor

Structural takeaways

  1. Labor won majority with inefficiently distributed but large 2PP — can lose national 2PP and still hold majority (Bonham analysis).
  2. Coalition vote concentrated in safe seats — uniform swing model understates Labor hold.
  3. 35 non-classic seats — Teal/IND/Green contests broke standard pendulum.
  4. Dutton lost Dickson — first opposition leader to lose own seat; triggered Ley then Taylor leadership.

Event log anchor

See events log for ongoing developments; this file is the frozen cycle summary.