Federal electoral pendulum (post–2025 election)
Source: AEC TPP by division, Members elected — final 10 Jun 2025.
National 2PP: 55.22% Labor · Seats: 94 ALP · 43 Coalition · 13 crossbench
Last updated: 2026-05-30 (Phase 3 — AEC-verified)
2PP (two-party preferred) and 2CP — definitions in the Electoral glossary.
Non-classic seats (35 at this election): 2PP shown below for classic Labor–Coalition contests only. Teal/IND/Green finals are in the crossbench table. Bradfield 2PP is AEC-approximated.
Labor-held classics — Coalition targets (by 2PP margin)
| Rank | Seat | St | Member | Party | ALP 2PP % | Margin | Swing | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullwinkel | WA | Trish Cook | ALP | 50.51 | +0.51 | -2.84 | Yes |
| 2 | Menzies | VIC | Gabriel Ng | ALP | 51.08 | +1.08 | +0.66 | Yes |
| 3 | Petrie | QLD | Emma Comer | ALP | 51.17 | +1.17 | +5.61 | Yes |
| 4 | Solomon | NT | Luke Gosling | ALP | 51.31 | +1.31 | -7.09 | Yes |
| 5 | Bendigo | VIC | Lisa Chesters | ALP | 51.40 | +1.40 | +51.40 | Yes |
| 6 | Wills | VIC | Peter Khalil | ALP | 51.43 | +1.43 | +3.77 | Yes |
| 7 | Forde | QLD | Rowan Holzberger | ALP | 51.77 | +1.77 | +6.00 | Yes |
| 8 | Banks | NSW | Zhi Soon | ALP | 52.39 | +2.39 | +5.03 | Yes |
| 9 | Deakin | VIC | Matt Gregg | ALP | 52.82 | +2.82 | +2.84 | Yes |
| 10 | Moore | WA | Tom French | ALP | 52.89 | +2.89 | +3.80 | Yes |
| 11 | Hughes | NSW | David Moncrieff | ALP | 53.06 | +3.06 | +6.52 | Yes |
| 12 | Aston | VIC | Mary Doyle | ALP | 53.43 | +3.43 | +6.04 | Yes |
| 13 | McEwen | VIC | Rob Mitchell | ALP | 54.76 | +4.76 | +0.94 | Yes |
| 14 | Bonner | QLD | Kara Cook | ALP | 55.00 | +5.00 | +8.41 | Yes |
| 15 | Gilmore | NSW | Fiona Phillips | ALP | 55.13 | +5.13 | +4.96 | Yes |
| 16 | Chisholm | VIC | Carina Garland | ALP | 55.70 | +5.70 | +2.37 | Yes |
| 17 | Blair | QLD | Shayne Neumann | ALP | 55.71 | +5.71 | +0.48 | Yes |
| 18 | Dickson | QLD | Ali France | ALP | 55.99 | +5.99 | +7.69 | Yes |
| 19 | Leichhardt | QLD | Matt Smith | ALP | 56.06 | +6.06 | +9.50 | Med |
| 20 | Whitlam | NSW | Carol Berry | ALP | 56.25 | +6.25 | -2.06 | Med |
| 21 | Pearce | WA | Tracey Roberts | ALP | 56.44 | +6.44 | -2.40 | Med |
| 22 | Sturt | SA | Claire Clutterham | ALP | 56.62 | +6.62 | +7.07 | Med |
| 23 | Werriwa | NSW | Anne Maree Stanley | ALP | 56.77 | +6.77 | +1.43 | Med |
| 24 | Paterson | NSW | Meryl Swanson | ALP | 56.89 | +6.89 | +4.29 | Med |
| 25 | Tangney | WA | Sam Lim | ALP | 56.99 | +6.99 | +4.14 | Med |
Showing 25 of 94 Labor-held classics. Full list: run python scripts/build_federal_pendulum.py.
Coalition-held classics — Labor targets (by 2PP margin)
| Rank | Seat | St | Member | Party | L/NP 2PP % | Margin | Swing | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Longman | QLD | Terry Young | LNP | 50.11 | +0.11 | +2.97 | Yes |
| 2 | Berowra | NSW | Julian Leeser | LIB | 51.63 | +1.63 | +5.93 | Yes |
| 3 | La Trobe | VIC | Jason Wood | LIB | 52.06 | +2.06 | +6.37 | Yes |
| 4 | Forrest | WA | Ben Small | LIB | 52.24 | +2.24 | +1.95 | Yes |
| 5 | Bowman | QLD | Henry Pike | LNP | 52.43 | +2.43 | +3.08 | Yes |
| 6 | Lindsay | NSW | Melissa McIntosh | LIB | 52.78 | +2.78 | +3.33 | Yes |
| 7 | Casey | VIC | Aaron Violi | LIB | 52.89 | +2.89 | -1.46 | Yes |
| 8 | Fairfax | QLD | Ted O'Brien | LNP | 53.23 | +3.23 | +5.72 | Yes |
| 9 | Mitchell | NSW | Alex Hawke | LIB | 53.81 | +3.81 | +6.68 | Yes |
| 10 | Goldstein | VIC | Tim Wilson | LIB | 53.97 | +3.97 | -0.25 | Yes |
| 11 | Monash | VIC | Mary Aldred | LIB | 54.09 | +4.09 | -1.19 | Yes |
| 12 | McPherson | QLD | Leon Rebello | LNP | 54.44 | +4.44 | +4.90 | Yes |
| 13 | Grey | SA | Tom Venning | LIB | 54.64 | +4.64 | +5.43 | Yes |
| 14 | Flinders | VIC | Zoe McKenzie | LIB | 54.78 | +4.78 | +1.38 | Yes |
| 15 | Capricornia | QLD | Michelle Landry | LNP | 55.83 | +5.83 | +0.76 | Yes |
| 16 | Fisher | QLD | Andrew Wallace | LNP | 56.03 | +6.03 | +2.64 | Med |
| 17 | Hinkler | QLD | David Batt | LNP | 56.26 | +6.26 | +3.81 | Med |
| 18 | Canning | WA | Andrew Hastie | LIB | 56.55 | +6.55 | -5.35 | Med |
| 19 | Fadden | QLD | Cameron Caldwell | LNP | 56.88 | +6.88 | +3.75 | Med |
| 20 | Cook | NSW | Simon Kennedy | LIB | 57.19 | +7.19 | +4.43 | Med |
Crossbench — decisive 2CP contests
| Seat | St | Member | Contest | 2CP margin % | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradfield | NSW | Nicolette Boele | IND v LIB | 0.01 | Yes |
| Kooyong | VIC | Monique Ryan | IND v LIB | 0.67 | Yes |
| Fowler | NSW | Dai Le | IND v ALP | 2.68 | Yes |
| Ryan | QLD | Elizabeth Watson-Brown | GRN v LNP | 3.27 | Yes |
| Curtin | WA | Kate Chaney | IND v LIB | 3.27 | Yes |
| Mackellar | NSW | Sophie Scamps | IND v LIB | 5.66 | Yes |
| Calare | NSW | Andrew Gee | IND v NAT | 6.78 | Yes |
| Wentworth | NSW | Allegra Spender | IND v LIB | 8.34 | Yes |
| Indi | VIC | Helen Haines | IND v LIB | 8.64 | Yes |
| Warringah | NSW | Zali Steggall | IND v LIB | 11.20 | Yes |
| Mayo | SA | Rebekha Sharkie | CA v ALP | 14.89 | Yes |
| Kennedy | QLD | Bob Katter | KAP v LNP | 15.75 | Yes |
| Clark | TAS | Andrew Wilkie | IND v ALP | 20.38 | Yes |
Uniform swing benchmarks
| Threshold | Swing to Coalition (uniform 2PP) |
|---|---|
| Labor loses majority | ~6.3% |
| Coalition largest party | ~7.2% |
| Coalition wins government | ~9.0% |
Coalition vote is inefficiently distributed; Teal/IND seats break uniform-swing models.
Data maintenance
Regenerate after redistribution: python scripts/build_federal_pendulum.py