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Electoral glossary

Definitions for terms used in pendulums, jurisdiction hubs, and politician dossiers. When a page uses shorthand (e.g. 2PP), it should link here.

!!! tip "Search tip" Searching 2PP (or 2CP, swing) should surface this glossary first — especially Two-party preferred (2PP) below.

← Guide · Federal pendulum

Term index

Term Jump to definition
2PP Two-party preferred (2PP)
2CP Two-candidate preferred (2CP)
TPP TPP
Swing Swing
Pendulum Pendulum
Meat export / live export / ESCAS Meat trade glossary (separate page)

Two-party preferred (2PP)

What it is: The percentage of votes for each of the two main blocs — Labor (ALP) and the Coalition (Liberal + Nationals, often labelled L/NP) — after preferences from all other candidates are distributed (or after a notional distribution by the electoral commission).

Question it answers: “If this seat were a straight Labor vs Coalition fight, who would win and by how much?”

Why we use it: Lets you compare marginals and swings across the country even when the ballot had Greens, independents, or other parties. Headline national figure (e.g. 55.22% Labor 2PP at the 2025 federal election) is the standard “who won the election” measure alongside seats won.

Margin: Holder’s 2PP minus 50%. Example: ALP 2PP 50.51% → margin +0.51% ALP (ultra-marginal).

In this tracker:

Location How 2PP is used
Federal pendulum Classic Labor–Coalition seats ranked by margin; national 2PP in header
SA, VIC, NSW, QLD, WA, NT State district tables (where applicable)
HoR dossiers “2PP margin” in quick facts → linked pendulum

Limitation: Misleading where the real contest is not Labor vs Coalition — see 2CP and non-classic seat.

Two-candidate preferred (2CP)

What it is: The final preference count between the two candidates who actually led after exclusions — e.g. Liberal vs Teal independent, or Labor vs Green.

When to use it instead of 2PP: Crossbench seats (Kooyong, Wentworth, Bradfield, Clark, etc.). The federal pendulum crossbench table lists 2CP margins, not 2PP.

TPP (two-party preferred)

Same concept as 2PP. The AEC labels division-level tables TPP; state commissions may say 2PP. This site uses 2PP in prose and TPP when citing AEC source filenames.

Swing

What it is: Change in vote share (usually 2PP or 2CP) compared with the previous election for that seat.

Sign: A positive swing to Labor means Labor’s share rose (often written +3.2 in AEC tables). Swings are per seat unless labelled “national swing”.

Caution: Large swings can reflect a different contest type (e.g. independent replacing Liberal) rather than uniform voter movement.

Uniform swing

What it is: A hypothetical model: if every seat moved by the same percentage toward one party, how many seats would flip?

In this tracker: The federal pendulum benchmarks (e.g. “Labor loses majority ~6.3%”) are illustrative only. Teal/IND seats break the model — called out on the pendulum page.

Pendulum

What it is: Seats (or districts) sorted by margin from most marginal to safest — like a clock pendulum swinging from one side to the other as the required swing grows.

In this tracker: Files under docs/seats/ — one per jurisdiction where single-member 2PP applies. Not a live poll; snapshot after the last election unless noted.

Non-classic seat

What it is: A seat where the decisive fight at the last election was not Labor vs Coalition on a standard 2PP basis (e.g. Liberal vs independent, or three-way primary).

Federal 2025: ~35 divisions treated as non-classic for 2PP tables; finals appear under 2CP or are excluded from classic tables. Example: Bradfield (Lib vs IND) — 2PP there is AEC-approximated only.

Hare-Clark

What it is: Proportional system used for the Tasmanian House of Assembly and ACT Legislative Assembly — multi-member electorates, quota to win a seat, Robson rotation on the ballot.

In this tracker: Tasmania “pendulum” is a composition summary, not a 2PP marginal list. Campaign logic uses quotas, not “+2% 2PP”.

Quota

What it is: In Hare-Clark, the vote share needed to elect one member in an electorate (roughly 1 ÷ (seats + 1)). Tasmania: 7 members per electorate → quota ≈ 12.5% of the vote.

L/NP (Liberal–National Coalition)

What it is: Combined Coalition 2PP — Liberal and National (and LNP in Queensland) treated as one side against Labor in classic federal and most state 2PP figures.

Exception: Queensland state politics often reports LNP as a single party; federal QLD may still show Coalition TPP in AEC data.

TCP (two-candidate preferred)

What it is: State electoral commissions (e.g. VEC) sometimes use TCP for the final two-candidate count — equivalent to 2CP in federal usage. Victorian non-classic seats (e.g. strong Greens primary) may need TCP/2CP rather than 2PP for planning.

Quick reference

Term Typical use in aupol
2PP Labor vs Coalition margin
2CP / TCP Final two candidates (often crossbench)
Swing Change since last election
Pendulum Ranked marginal seat table
Hare-Clark TAS/ACT — seats by quota, not 2PP pendulum