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Victoria electoral pendulum

Source: VEC 2022 state election 2PP (corrected marginals per Antony Green).
Next election: November 2026.
Last updated: 2026-05-30

2PP — Electoral glossary.

Labor under Jacinta Allan.

Most marginal districts (2PP, 2022 baseline)

Rank District Holder ALP % L/NP % Margin Watch
1 Pakenham ALP 50.2 49.8 +0.2 ALP Yes
2 Mildura NAT 48.8 51.2 +0.9 NAT Yes
3 Hawthorn ALP 51.0 49.0 +1.0 ALP Yes
4 Narracan NAT 48.9 51.1 +1.1 NAT Yes
5 Bellarine ALP 51.3 48.7 +1.3 ALP Yes
6 Bayswater ALP 51.6 48.4 +1.6 ALP Yes
7 Ashwood ALP 51.9 48.1 +1.9 ALP Yes
8 Ringwood ALP 52.0 48.0 +2.0 ALP Yes
9 Caulfield ALP 52.1 47.9 +2.1 ALP Yes
10 Nepean LIB 47.7 52.3 +2.3 LIB Yes
11 Mount Waverley ALP 52.4 47.6 +2.4 ALP Yes
12 Box Hill ALP 52.5 47.5 +2.5 ALP Yes
13 Frankston ALP 52.8 47.2 +2.8 ALP Yes
14 Brighton ALP 53.0 47.0 +3.0 ALP Yes
15 Wendouree ALP 53.2 46.8 +3.2 ALP Yes
16 Kew LIB 46.5 53.5 +3.5 LIB Yes
17 Benambra NAT 46.2 53.8 +3.8 NAT Yes
18 South Barwon ALP 54.0 46.0 +4.0 ALP Yes
19 Melbourne ALP 54.2 45.8 +4.2 ALP Yes
20 Richmond ALP 54.5 45.5 +4.5 ALP Yes
21 Morwell ALP 55.0 45.0 +5.0 ALP Yes
22 Bentleigh ALP 55.2 44.8 +5.2 ALP Yes

Non-classic seats (e.g. Melbourne with strong Greens primary) — use VEC TCP for campaign planning.

2026 context