South Australia electoral pendulum
Primary source (2026 campaign): Antony Green — 2026 SA pendulum (notional margins after redistribution and Dunstan/Black by-elections).
2022 baseline: ECSA 2022 HA 2PP by district — data/sa-2022-2pp.csv.
2026 election: Held 21 March 2026 — Labor 34 · Liberal 5 · One Nation 4 · crossbench 4; statewide TPP ~55.7% ALP (Wikipedia). Classic 2PP pendulum is less meaningful where One Nation won lower-house seats.
Last updated: 2026-05-30
Labor government under Peter Malinauskas.
Most marginal districts (2026 notional 2PP)
Sorted by margin — seats Labor and Liberal would defend on a uniform swing model. Non-classic seats (IND, ONP) noted in Antony Green’s notes.
| Rank | District | Holder | ALP 2PP % | LIB 2PP % | Margin | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunstan | ALP | 50.8 | 49.2 | +0.8 ALP | Yes |
| 2 | Stuart | LIB | 49.5 | 50.5 | +1.1 LIB | Yes |
| 3 | Morialta | LIB | 48.6 | 51.4 | +1.4 LIB | Yes |
| 4 | Unley | LIB | 48.9 | 51.1 | +2.2 LIB | Yes |
| 5 | Gibson | ALP | 52.5 | 47.5 | +2.5 ALP | Yes |
| 6 | Heysen | LIB | 48.7 | 51.3 | +2.6 LIB | Yes |
| 7 | Ngadjuri | LIB | 48.4 | 51.6 | +3.2 LIB | Yes |
| 8 | Davenport | ALP | 53.4 | 46.6 | +3.4 ALP | Yes |
| 9 | Kavel | LIB | 46.5 | 53.5 | +3.5 LIB | Yes |
| 10 | Hartley | LIB | 48.2 | 51.8 | +3.6 LIB | Yes |
| 11 | King | ALP | 54.0 | 46.0 | +4.0 ALP | Yes |
| 12 | Waite | ALP | 54.0 | 46.0 | +4.0 ALP | Yes |
| 13 | Morphett | LIB | 47.8 | 52.2 | +4.5 LIB | Yes |
| 14 | Colton | LIB | 47.6 | 52.4 | +4.8 LIB | Yes |
| 15 | Hammond | LIB | 47.5 | 52.5 | +5.1 LIB | Yes |
| 16 | Newland | ALP | 55.4 | 44.6 | +5.4 ALP | Yes |
| 17 | Elder | ALP | 55.6 | 44.4 | +5.6 ALP | Yes |
| 18 | Adelaide | ALP | 56.2 | 43.8 | +6.2 ALP | No |
| 19 | Black | ALP | 59.9 | 40.1 | +9.9 ALP | No |
| 20 | Torrens | ALP | 60.0 | 40.0 | +10.0 ALP | No |
2022 ECSA baseline (raw election night 2PP)
Corrected from ECSA CSV (vote percentages in columns 3 and 5 — not vote totals). Useful for comparing to 2022 boundaries.
| Rank | District | Holder | ALP 2PP % | LIB 2PP % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunstan | LIB | 49.5 | 50.5 | +0.5 LIB |
| 2 | Stuart | ALP | 50.8 | 49.2 | +0.8 ALP |
| 3 | Morialta | LIB | 48.6 | 51.4 | +1.4 LIB |
| 4 | Heysen | LIB | 48.1 | 51.9 | +1.9 LIB |
| 5 | Unley | LIB | 47.8 | 52.2 | +2.2 LIB |
| 6 | Gibson | ALP | 52.5 | 47.5 | +2.5 ALP |
| 7 | Black | LIB | 47.3 | 52.7 | +2.7 LIB |
| 8 | King | ALP | 52.9 | 47.1 | +2.9 ALP |
| 9 | Davenport | ALP | 53.4 | 46.6 | +3.4 ALP |
| 10 | Hartley | LIB | 46.4 | 53.6 | +3.6 LIB |
| 11 | Waite | ALP | 54.0 | 46.0 | +4.0 ALP |
| 12 | Morphett | LIB | 45.5 | 54.5 | +4.5 LIB |
| 13 | Kavel | LIB | 45.4 | 54.6 | +4.6 LIB |
| 14 | Colton | LIB | 45.2 | 54.8 | +4.8 LIB |
| 15 | Hammond | LIB | 44.9 | 55.1 | +5.1 LIB |
Key marginals (verified 2022 ECSA)
| District | 2022 margin | 2026 notional | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunstan | +0.5 LIB | +0.8 ALP | Marshall held 2022; Labor gained Mar 2024 by-election |
| Stuart | +0.8 ALP | +1.1 LIB (2PP) | Brock IND; boundaries changed |
| Morialta | +1.4 LIB | +1.4 LIB | |
| Black | +2.7 LIB | +9.9 ALP | Labor gained Nov 2024 by-election |
| Gibson | +2.5 ALP | +2.5 ALP | |
| Davenport | +3.4 ALP | +3.4 ALP | |
| Colton | +4.8 LIB | +4.8 LIB |
Regenerate: python scripts/build_state_pendulum.py